Who is gonna win a Golden Globe tonight?! A Kim Rogers Award Exclusive

This article was written for Nerdsburgh.com

by pop culture expert

KIM ROGERS

While Awards Season technically kicked off with Thursday night’s Critics Choice Awards, most movie junkies consider The Golden Globes to be the official start of Oscar Season. 

I definitely think the Globes tend to be the most fun of all the shows, thanks to the sheer number of celebrities in the room and the free flowing champagne at all the tables.  After all, this is the awards show where Christine Lahti infamously missed her category because she was in the bathroom and Jim Carrey accepted his award by literally talking out of his butt.  How can we forget the year a loopy Elizabeth Taylor started to open the envelope for Best Picture Drama before even reading the nominees, prompting Dick Clark to run out and stop her (Her triumphant announcement of “Glaaaaaaaaaaaadiator!!” is forever seared into my memory).  Yes, the Golden Globes are always a good time.

This year, Ricky Gervais returns for a third time as host.  He took a lot of flack last year for some of his jokes being overly nasty, but as a viewer (and fan of his stand-up) I found him  hilarious.  And come on…nominating Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp for their work in the abomination that was The Tourist?  That was just asking to be made fun of.  So I very much look forward to what Gervais will bring to the show this year. 

In regards to pools and predictions, The Golden Globes has a history of going a little wacky with their winner selections (um…Robert Downey Jr. as Best Actor in a Comedy for Sherlock Holmes?), so predicting them can be a little dangerous.  But I’m going to give it my best shot…and yes, in some categories, I’m unwilling to commit. 

Best Motion Picture (Drama):
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse
With likely Best Picture winner The Artist in the Comedy/Musical category, the Drama category is a bit of a toss up to me.  Hugo has a lot of buzz, which, while it is a lovely little movie, I don’t really understand.  War Horse is the most “traditional” baity awards epic, but it has gotten very little attention in precursor awards.  I’m going to go with Alexander Payne’s The Descendants.  The HFPA loved Payne’s last effort, Sideways.

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical):  
50/50
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Carnage
Midnight in Paris
My Week With Marilyn
Like I said above, I am pretty certain The Artist has this in the bag.  The only spoiler could be Bridesmaids.   After all, this is the same organization that gave this award to The Hangover a few years ago.

Best Actor (Drama):
George Clooney in The Descendants
Brad Pitt in Moneyball
Ryan Gosling in The Ides of March
Michael Fassbender in Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio in J. Edgar
This comes down to the battle of the beautiful movie stars…Brad Pitt (Moneyball) and George Clooney (The Descendants).  Both performances are great, and personally, I think Brad Pitt is terribly underrated as an actor.  But I am going with George on this one.

Best Actress (Drama):
Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis in The Help
Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton in We Need to Talk About Kevin
This will be a battle between former Doubt costars Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Viola Davis (The Help).  Davis triumphed at the Critics Choice awards (please look up her speech on YouTube.  It was amazing.), but given that it is the Hollywood FOREIGN Press Association, I’m predicting Meryl will win here for her portrayal of British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy):
Jean Dujardin in The Artist
Brendan Gleeson in The Guard
Joseph Gordon-Levitt in 50/50
Ryan Gosling in Crazy, Stupid, Love
Owen Wilson in Midnight in Paris
As the Globes notoriously love their movie stars, it is not unthinkable to predict that they will reward the ubiquitous (and double nominated) Ryan Gosling for his charming performance in Crazy, Stupid, Love.  However, I am putting my money on French actor Jean Dujardin for his work in The Artist.

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy):
Jodie Foster in Carnage
Charlize Theron in Young Adult
Kristen Wiig in Bridesmaids
Michelle Williams in My Week with Marilyn
Kate Winslet in Carnage
I expect Michelle Williams to pick up her first Golden Globe for her performance as Marilyn Monroe in My Week with Marilyn.  You’ve come a long way from Dawson’s Creek, Jen Lindley.

Best Supporting Actor:
Kenneth Branagh in My Week With Marilyn
Albert Brooks in Drive
Jonah Hill in Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen in A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer in Beginners
Christopher Plummer (sublime as a man who comes out of the closet late in life in Beginners) will pick up another trophy as he marches towards that Oscar in February.

Best Supporting Actress:
Berenice Bejo in The Artist
Jessica Chastain in The Help
Janet McTeer in Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer in The Help
Shailene Woodley in The Descendants
First of all, I was shocked that Melissa McCarthy was not nominated here for her work in Bridesmaids, especially given the obvious love for the film elsewhere in the nominations, not to mention the numerous critical awards she has already picked up.  I expect this will go to The Help’s Octavia Spencer for her feisty performance as Minny.

Best Director:
Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris
George Clooney for The Ides of March
Michael Hazavicius for The Artist
Alexander Payne for The Descendants
Martin Scorsese for Hugo
Michel Hazanavicus, The Artist.  Another completely charming Critics Choice acceptance speech you should look up on YouTube.

Best Screenplay:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
Unlike the Oscars, where screenplays are divided into Adapted and Original works, there is only one screenplay category at the Globes…and this is a tough category to call.  I think it is between The Descendants and Moneyball.

Best TV Series (Drama):
AMERICAN HORROR STORY (FX)
BOARDWALK EMPIRE (HBO)
BOSS (STARZ)
GAME OF THRONES (HBO)
HOMELAND (SHOWTIME)
Last year Boardwalk Empire upset 3 time champ Mad Men…with Mad Men not even being eligible this year, can it repeat?  Flashy newbies like American Horror Story and Game of Thrones will make it tough.  The HPFA has a long love affair with anything Ryan Murphy does, so I can definitely see AHS winning.  The real crime of this category is that the phenomenal fourth season of Breaking Bad wasn’t even nominated.  Ridiculous, I say!

Best TV Series (Comedy):

ENLIGHTENED (HBO)
EPISODES (SHOWTIME)
GLEE (FOX)
MODERN FAMILY (ABC)
NEW GIRL (FOX)
I have a LOT of rage when it comes to this category.  Has the HFPA even WATCHED this season of Glee?  If they had, it most certainly would not be nominated here.  The fact that far superior shows like Community (SIX SEASONS AND A MOVIE!!) and Parks and Recreation aren’t nominated makes it hard for me to take this category seriously.  That being said, I would love to see New Girl win here.  But I have a sinking feeling Glee will win for the third year in a row.  Prove me wrong, HFPA!

Best Actor (Drama):
Steve Buscemi for BOARDWALK EMPIRE
Bryan Cranston for BREAKING BAD
Kelsey Grammer for BOSS
Jeremy Irons for THE BORGIAS
Damian Lewis for HOMELAND
Breaking Bad’s Bryan Cranston, hands down.  Anyone else would just be ridiculous, in my opinion.

Best Actress (Drama):
Claire Danes for HOMELAND
Mireille Enos for THE KILLING
Julianna Margulies for THE GOOD WIFE
Madeleine Stowe for REVENGE
Callie Thorne for NECESSARY ROUGHNESS
It’s a fight to the death between past winners Claire Danes (Homeland) and Juliana Margulies (The Good Wife).  I am picking Danes.

Best Actor (Comedy):
Alec Baldwin for 30 ROCK
David Duchovny for CALIFORNICATION
Johnny Galecki for THE BIG BANG THEORY
Thomas Jane for HUNG
Matt Leblanc for EPISODES
Another category that fills me with rage.  The nominees just feel lazy and random.  Johnny Galecki over Big Bang costar (and two time Emmy winner) Jim Parsons?  No love at all for the wonderful work Joel McHale is doing on Community?  Who actually WATCHES Hung?  I’m guessing 30 Rock’s Alec Baldwin wins by default.

Best Actress (Comedy):
Laura Dern for ENLIGHTENED
Zooey Deschanel for NEW GIRL
Tina Fey for 30 ROCK
Laura Linney for THE BIG C
Amy Poehler for PARKS AND RECREATION
In a perfect world, Amy Poehler would win for her delightful work on Parks and Recreation.  However, the Globes famously love to reward Actresses from a Freshman Series, so I am betting Zooey Deschanel wins for New Girl.  And I’m okay with that.  The role DOES kind of scream “Golden Globe!!” to me.

Supporting Actor/Actress (Television):

Peter Dinklage for GAME OF THRONES
Paul Giamatti for TOO BIG TO FAIL
Guy Pearce for MILDRED PIERCE
Tim Robbins for CINEMA VERITE
Eric Stonestreet for MODERN FAMILY

Jessica Lange for AMERICAN HORROR STORY
Kelly Macdonald for BOARDWALK EMPIRE
Maggie Smith for DOWNTOWN ABBEY
Sofia Vergara for MODERN FAMILY
Evan Rachel Wood for MILDRED PEARCE

The Globes put ALL supporting television work (series, mini-series and motion picture made for television) in one category, which, quite frankly, is a ridiculous thing to do and an insult to supporting actors everywhere.   As a coworker said to me, “It’s like comparing Apples to Hula Hoops…you can’t do it”.  And it’s true.  The combining of all the supporting work shuts out people who deserve recognition.  Current Emmy Winners Ty Burrell and Julie Bowen (both of Modern Family) didn’t even get NOMINATED, that’s how competitive the supporting field is.  I do think Jessica Lange will win for her deliciously Gothic work on American Horror Story, and I would love to see Emmy Winner Peter Dinklage pick up another trophy for Game of Thrones.

The only prediction I can make when it comes to TV Movie/Miniseries is that Mildred Pierce’s Kate Winslet will pick up her third Golden Globe award on Sunday Night.  And Mildred Pierce may win the whole thing, but I’d watch out for Downton Abbey...my friends won’t shut up about how awesome it is, and I feel very left out not having seen it yet.

A friend and I plan on live tweeting the Red Carpet (starting a 6/5C on E! then at 7/6C on NBC) and show (8/7C on NBC).  Follow us at @dramakim and @abrighteryellow for all the fashion, outrage and hilarity that an awards show can bring.  We’ll be drinking red wine, so much like the celebrities; we’ll be more fun the longer the evening goes on.